Penn State vs Illinois 9/29/2012

[RXNewsbot]

AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Penn State winning 58% of simulations, and Illinois 42% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Penn State commits fewer turnovers in 41% of simulations and they go on to win 69% when they take care of the ball. Illinois wins 57% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Derek Day is averaging 33 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (16% chance) then he helps his team win 70%. Josh Ferguson is averaging 59 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (15% chance) then he helps his team win 58%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ILL +3

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